TEN THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT THE WAR IN THE HOLY LAND (PART 1 OF 2)
Before we get to conspiracy theorizing, let's get the facts straight.
1. THIS WAR IS VERY DIFFERENT FROM ANY OF THE CONFLICTS BETWEEN ISRAELIS AND PALESTINIANS OF THE PAST 50 YEARS
More Israelis have died in the past two days than have died in the past 20 years, and that’s to say nothing of the kidnappings and injuries.
It is clear that this is not the “same old story”.
2. Much of the world NOT condemning the Arab assault on Israel.
Countries around the world have issued statements regarding the War in the Holy Land that can be divided into three camps.
The first camp is the: “We condemn these terrorist attacks and fully support Israel’s right to self-defence" camp.
The second camp is the “We urge restraint” camp, and consists of diplomatically neutral non-statements.
Most of the countries who did not outright condemn Hamas offer some iteration of the positions expressed by China and Russia.
The third camp is the most heterogenous, as it consists of all the countries that aren’t parroting either line. Some of them are openly supportive of the Palestinian cause. Here’s a few examples:
3. THE WEAPONS HAMAS IS USING ARE LIKELY BEING SMUGGLED INTO GAZA FROM EGYPT.
Gaza is under a total naval blockade, and the only country that it borders other Israel is Egypt. It stands to reason that weapons likely entered Gaza by land from Egypt.
Did Egypt turn a blind eye? Or did they have an “intelligence failure” as well?
Egyptian officials claim that they warned Israel that they believed that Hamas was planning something big. If that’s true, why was the IDF caught off guard?
Did Israel let this happen on purpose? The possibility needs to be taken seriously.
4. Egypt, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Ethiopia joined BRICS back in August.
According to a recent article published by The Diplomat:
[A]t the 15th BRICS summit in Johannesburg, South Africa in late August, the club announced an agreement to admit six new members: Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
While analysts love anagrams, BRICSAEEISU doesn’t exactly roll off the tongue. The new bloc is thus tentatively called “BRICS+.”
The six new members will officially join the group in January 2024, at which time BRICS+ will represent 36 percent of global GDP.
To understand the importance of this, one need only look at a map:
Since I happen to also have this map handy, I recommend you keep the locations of U.S. military bases in mind too:
5. Russia started arming Iran this year
It doesn’t take Seymour Hersh to figure out who’s backing Hamas. It’s obviously Iran, likely with the support of the Syrian regime, Hezbollah and other Arab allies.
If you know anything about geopolitics, you know that Israel and Iran are mortal enemies.
What you may not know is that Russia started arming Iran this year.
Allow me to qutoe from January 2023 Newsweek article entitled How Russia Arming Iran May Be Game-Changer for U.S., Allies in Middle East:
Iran's confirmation that it was set to receive a batch of advanced Su-35 fighter jets from Russia has signaled the dawn of a new era in the complex relationship between Moscow and Tehran, whose burgeoning defense axis could have significant ramifications for the security interests of the United States and its allies in the Middle East.
The development, confirmed earlier this week by a member of Iran's legislative National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, would mark the Islamic Republic's first major acquisition of foreign warplanes this century. Set to arrive as early as this spring, the "fourth-generation ++" Su-35s would give the Iranian Air Force a substantial boost to its aging fleet, and set the stage for potential future exchanges of military equipment between the two powers.
Soooo… Obama was right?
If you have a memory slightly better than a goldfish’s, you will remember that Obama was gung-ho on a deal with Iran.
If you’ve got a minute and a half to spend listening to a politician, you could do worse than watching this video:
At the time, Obama stated that the alternative to a deal with Iran was another war in the Middle East. Trump came to power and scuttled that deal.
I know Obama’s a politician and everything, but just throwing this out there - looks like he was right.
Thanks for taking a more nuanced position.
And trying to stick to facts.
So many people and organizations I follow from left to right picking a tribe. Breaking Points and Nevermore two of the very few trying to be neutral (which is never 100% possible but is a laudable goal).
As a human rights activist and peacenik encouraging or cheering violence is not on my plate.
If we we were going to broker peace in the Mideast, engaging with Iran always made sense to me. I believe your analysis here is correct. Our one-sided approach to Israel is leading us into a wider conflict...